Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf appears to have survived his fourth known assassination attempt. Pakistani state-owned television said gunshots were heard July 6 near the Chaklala military air base in Rawalpindi as the president’s airplane was taking off. Musharraf has reportedly landed safely in Turbat, a remote town in the southwest that has been affected by recent flooding.

Musharraf has more enemies than he can count these days, and an attempt on his life is not surprising. The Pakistani general was targeted by al Qaeda militants twice in 2003 in the capital, Islamabad, and once in 2002 in Karachi. Pakistani military spokesman Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad denied that the shots fired from a rooftop near the air base in Rawalpindi had targeted Musharraf’s plane and said the gunfire was unrelated to the president. However, Pakistani sources have said there was an attempt on Musharraf’s life.

Although the last military ruler of Pakistan, President Gen. Mohammed Zia-ul Haq, was killed in a mysterious plane crash in 1988 (believed to have been an inside job), and although there is a significant level of concern among Musharraf’s commanders because of his dire political situation, this assassination attempt is unlikely to have involved the military. It was most likely perpetrated by al Qaeda elements — and not very sophisticated ones at that. Junior military officers were involved in car bombings in 2003 that targeted Musharraf, but they were sophisticated attacks in close proximity to the president.

In this assassination attempt, weapons and ammunition used in the attack were found in Asghar Mall district in Rawalpindi, an area that is relatively far from the military base. Reports indicate that a crudely modified 14.5 mm anti-aircraft gun on a makeshift wooden tripod and a light machine gun were found on the rooftop of a house that was rented out by a man and woman a few days ago. The residential area surrounding the Rawalpindi airfield is very densely populated, and it would not be unthinkable for militants to have positioned the weapons to stage such an attack.

Though Musharraf’s itinerary would have been tightly guarded, it would not have been impossible for the attackers to figure out his flight schedule. The military issued a report saying Musharraf would fly from the Rawalpindi base to the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan to visit people affected by recent flooding. Leaders of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League have openly said in the press that Musharraf would personally visit the affected areas to announce a relief fund for flood victims.

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